On the economics of financial guarantees

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On pp. 13-19 of the Derivatives Theory, part 3 lecture note and in Problem Set 9, we study how credit enhancement of risky debt works. Examples of credit enhancement in the real world include federal deposit insurance, public and private bond insurance, pension insurance, mortgage insurance, government loan guarantees, etc.; the list goes on.

Most credit enhancement schemes work in the fashion described below. Creditors loan money to “risky” borrowers who are at risk for defaulting on promised payments. Although borrowers promise to pay back $B at t=1, they may default (in whole or in part) and the shortfall to creditors resembles a put option with t=1 payoff of -Max[0, B-F]. Therefore, without credit enhancement, the value of risky debt at t=0 is

V(D) = B{e^{ - r}} - V(Max[0,B - F]).


However, when credit risk is intermediated by a guarantor (e.g., an insurance company or government agency), credit risk gets transferred to the guarantor, who receives an upfront “premium” worth V(Max[0,B - F]) at t=0 in exchange for having to cover a shortfall of Max[0,B - F] that may occur at t=1. If all credit risk is transferred to the guarantor (as shown in the graphic provided below), then from the creditors’ perspective it is as if the borrowers have issued riskless debt. Therefore, creditors charge borrowers the riskless rate of interest and are paid back what was promised from two sources: 1) borrowers pay D = B - Max[0,B - F], and 2) the guarantor pays Max[0,B - F].

economics_of_deposit_insurance

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